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Author Topic: Prepare for new Ice Age now says top paleoclimatologist  (Read 1735 times)

Canuck In Denver

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Prepare for new Ice Age now says top paleoclimatologist
« on: April 01, 2011, 06:21:42 PM »

What more can be said? Read the article and decide for yourself.


http://www.helium.com/items/2125333-prepare-for-new-ice-age-now-says-top-paleoclimatologist

Prepare for new Ice Age now says top paleoclimatologist

by Terrence Aym

March 28, 2011

Geologic records show that Ice Ages are the norm, punctuated by brief periods of warming. Now one of the most highly respected paleoclimatologists has weighed in and is warning everyone to prepare for a new Ice Age.

A new Ice Age? Then what's all the brouhaha about man-made global warming over the past 20 years?

George Kukla, 77, retired professor of paleoclimatology at Columbia University and researcher at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory responds, "The only thing to worry about global warming is the damage that can be done by worrying. Why are some scientists worried? Perhaps because they feel that to stop worrying may mean to stop being paid." 

The "Earth has experienced an ongoing cycle of ice ages dating back millions of years. Cold, glacial periods affecting the polar to mid-latitudes persist for about 100,000 years, punctuated by briefer, warmer periods called interglacials," Kukla says.

Co-author of an important section of the book "Natural Climate Variability on Decade to Century Time Scales," Kukla asserts all Ice Ages strat with a period of global warming. They are the the harbingers of new Ice Ages. Actually, he explains, warming is good. Ice Ages are deadly and may even kill millions.

Can Mankind stop it? No. Just as humanity cannot affect the long term climate of the planet, neither can it stop an Ice Age from happening. The climate is primarly driven by the sun.

"I feel we're on pretty solid ground in interpreting orbit around the sun as the primary driving force behind Ice Age glaciation," he says. "The relationship is just too clear and consistent to allow reasonable doubt. It's either that, or climate drives orbit, and that just doesn't make sense."

Human influence

Ultimately, Kukla warns, human activities may have an impact more on water vapor in the atmosphere than any real affect on global temperatures. Neither does the activity have any real impact over climate cycles. He does admit, however, that the current level and type of human activity may have some impact on a transition towards encroaching glacial conditions, increase the polar water flow and accelerate the coming Ice Age.

He explains that glaciation during an Ice Age comes from the icecaps. The poles only account for about 14 percent of the entire Earth's surface. The Ice Age begins at the poles and ends at the poles and is fed by water vapor moving to the extreme north and south from the tropics.

During a lengthy interview with Gelf Magazine, Kukla explained: "What is happening is very similar to the time 115,000 years ago, when the last glaciation started. It is difficult to comprehend, but it is really so: The last glacial was accompanied by the increase of a really averaged global mean surface temperature, alias global warming.

"What happened then was that the shifting sun warmed the tropics and cooled the Arctic and Antarctic. Because the tropics are so much larger than the poles, the area-weighted global mean temperature was increasing. But also increasing was the temperature difference between the oceans and the poles, the basic condition of polar ice growth. Believe it or not, the last glacial started with 'global warming!'"

So, as more water vapor's carried to the poles the southern icecap calves and thickens, the extreme center of the northern pole gradually becomes ice-free and the lower latitudes experience heavier snowfalls that gradually start migrating towards the south.

That's exactly what's happening now.

Although criticized in the past for his views on global cooling in the face of political moves to support the opposite, Kukla feels he's vindicated. "None of us expected uninterrupted continuation of the trend." On the contrary, Kukla and his colleagues expected a warming blip and it occurred like clockwork. He knows that global warming always precedes an Ice Age. The history of that is in the ice core records repeating itself every 100,000 years or so over millions of years.

Adamant that humans have little to do with warming or cooling and that cooling would be a disaster of indescribable proportions, Kulka wrote to the United States Congress: "…a global deterioration of climate, by order of magnitude larger than any hitherto experienced by civilized mankind, is a very real possibility and indeed may be due very soon. The cooling has natural cause and falls within the rank of processes which produced the last Ice Age."

Ice Age catastrophes

Generations ago, scientists believed Ice Ages advanced slowly taking tens of thousands of years. Now some researchers have revealed startling evidence that an Ice Age can be triggered in under 10 years.

Warming is much more preferable than cooling. Warming would actually help Mankind; cooling will do just the opposite.

Kukla and his colleagues warn that as the ice starts marching southward from the Arctic there will be "substantially lowered food production" and evidence will abound of "extreme weather anomalies" in both the northern and southern latitudes.

Global superstorms may break out. Some regions may experience anomalous cold spells while others roast from spiking temperatures never before seen by civilization.

Those things too are exactly what's happening now.

So is Man responsible in any way for "global warming?" Kulka thinks, "Man is responsible for a part of global warming; most of it is still natural."

Wild cards

Not taken into Kulka's model of an encroaching Ice Age are the facts and possible impact of the magnetic pole shift, the shifting core of the Earth, or the revelation by NASA and the ESA that the sun is going to fall into a quiet period for the next 30 to 50 years.

That exceptional solar minimum cycle is expected to start in 2014, perhaps earlier.

It seems the odds are good that the Earth will slip into an extended cooling, or so-called mini-Ice Age. Whether that becomes an extended 100,000 year full-fledged Ice Age even Kulka doesn't know.

Sources

"Scientist Refutes Notion of Recent Climate as 'Uniquely Benign' —Sees Evidence of Approaching Ice Age Despite Global Warming," Earth Institute Columbia University

"Forget warming—beware the new Ice Age," Canada.com

"An Unrepentant Prognosticator—Climatologist George Kukla still believes an ice age is likely," Gelf Magazine

George Kukla's biography (published by Canada.com):

George Kukla, micropalentologist and Special Research Scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, is a pioneer in the study of solar forcing of climate changes. He was the lead author of the scientific paper that first supported Milutin Milankovic's theory of glacial cycles by investigating the stratigraphy in deep-sea sediment cores from the southern Indian Ocean. In the cores were clear imprints of Milankovic's proposed cycles. In his paper he wrote, "We are certain now that changes in the Earth's orbital geometry caused the ice ages. The evidence is so strong that other explanations must now be discarded or modified." Prior to joining Columbia in 1971, he had published landmark studies in Czechoslovakia, where he was a member of the Czechoslovakian Academy of Sciences.
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Jerry D Young

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Re: Prepare for new Ice Age now says top paleoclimatologist
« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2011, 01:08:05 PM »

Been saying that for a long time, just on my gut feeling. Nice to see some explanation to how it might work.
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Jerry D Young

Canuck In Denver

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Re: Prepare for new Ice Age now says top paleoclimatologist
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2011, 03:43:16 AM »

Yeah, I've been saying it too. Amazing the number of people that will suddenly realize that you've been right all along and the information you've showed them is now right all because someone with a PhD now agrees with you.
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Blueduck

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Re: Prepare for new Ice Age now says top paleoclimatologist
« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2011, 11:49:53 PM »

even a person with BS who went back to school and got more of the same [MS] will get laffed at until some one with it piled high and deep [phd] comes out and says the same thing.... then of course it must be true. :o ::)

Same thing happened to me years ago while trying to engage conversation about the political historical reference book [Holy Bible] anyone that i talked to would join the conversation but sooner or later would say "my minister says" til i got fed up and became a minister, then those same people would say "oh your a minister, you must be right"  i gave up trying after that..... seems like no one has an opinion that counts unless they are "somebody" and who am i to be "somebody" for more than an opinion of my own!!!  i was after debatable data, and research for my own reasons [so i wouldnt have to "cram" like most old people getting ready for the final countdown journey] 

So maybe we will continue to have the type of weather weve had all along, some extremes on both ends of the scale but nothing like a global meltdown resulting in a 2012 like movie where we al need to have a "ticket" to board a chineese "ark" nor a global ice age where we all have to wear animal skins of then extinct Canadian timber wolves, and grizzlies, that the congress put on the "endangerred specie list for juist that reasoning.
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Sustainablehome

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The sun has gone blank twice this month. This is what it means
« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2016, 06:19:50 PM »

http://www.news.com.au/technology/science/space/the-sun-has-gone-blank-twice-this-month-this-is-what-it-means/news-story/d775ecf894ab68415ed0108ced31a4e2

The sun has gone blank twice this month. This is what it means

June 30, 20168:21am

The sun at the moment is completely blank. But don’t worry, everything’s going to be all right.


YOU may not have noticed but our sun has gone as blank as a cue ball. As in, it’s lost its spots.

According to scientists, this unsettling phenomenon is a sign we are heading for a mini ice age.

Meteorologist and renowned sun-watcher Paul Dorian raised the alarm in his latest report, which has sparked a mild panic about an impending Game of Thrones-style winter not seen since the 17th century.

“For the second time this month, the sun has gone completely blank,” Mr Dorian says.

“The blank sun is a sign that the next solar minimum is approaching and there will be an increasing number of spotless days over the next few years.

“At first, the blankness will stretch for just a few days at a time, then it’ll continue for weeks at a time, and finally it should last for months at a time when the sunspot cycle reaches its nadir. The next solar minimum phase is expected to take place around 2019 or 2020.”

If you’re confused about what a “blank” sun is, below is a picture of what it normally looks like, in all its solar flare-and-blemishes glory.

According to NASA, the sun goes through a natural solar cycle approximately every 11 years. The cycle is marked by the increase and decrease of sunspots — visible as dark blemishes on the sun’s surface, or photosphere. The greatest number of sunspots in any given solar cycle is designated as “solar maximum.” The lowest number is “solar minimum”.

“During Solar Max, huge sunspots and intense solar flares are a daily occurrence. Auroras appear in Florida. Radiation storms knock out satellites. Radio blackouts frustrate CB radio as well. The last such episode took place in the years around 2000-2001,” the space agency’s website

“During solar minimum, the opposite occurs. Solar flares are almost non-existent while whole weeks go by without a single, tiny sunspot to break the monotony of the blank sun. This is what we are experiencing now.”

Given that the sun is the main driver of all weather and climate, the sinister-sounding “blankness” to which Mr Dorian refers has some experts predicting a “Maunder Minimum” phase similar to one which began in 1645 and which is referred to as the “Little Ice Age”.

The Maunder Minimum, named after solar astronomer Edward Maunder, lasted for a brutal 70 years and was so cold the Thames froze over.

A slightly less intense ice age-like period called the Dalton Minimum — after British Meteorologist John Dalton — arrived decades later and lasted from about 1790 to 1830.

“If history is any guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time can have a cooling impact on global temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottommost layer of Earth’s atmosphere — and where we all live,” Mr Dorian says.

Mr Dorian’s findings back research by professor Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University, who warned that a predicted sharp decline in solar activity between 2020 and 2050 was a sign another ice age was coming.

“I am absolutely confident in our research,” Prof Zharkova said.

“It has good mathematical background and reliable data, which has been handled correctly. In fact, our results can be repeated by any researchers with the similar data available in many solar observatories, so they can derive their own evidence of upcoming Maunder Minimum in solar magnetic field and activity.”

A graph showing the top ‘sunspotless’ days since 1849. The peach columns show when relatively brief solar minimums have occurred. In contrast, the ‘Little Ice Age’ of the 17th century coincided with a 70-year solar minimum.

A graph showing the top ‘sunspotless’ days since 1849. The peach columns show when relatively brief solar minimums have occurred. In contrast, the ‘Little Ice Age’ of the 17th century coincided with a 70-year solar minimum.Source:Supplied

And there are other consequences of a sun without spots. Not least for astronauts who face the risk of having their DNA “shattered” by cosmic rays, whose potency surges during periods of solar weakness.

According to Mr Dorian, cosmic rays surge into the inner solar system “with relative ease” during periods of solar minimum.

“Solar wind decreases and sun’s magnetic field weakens during solar minimums making it easier for cosmic rays to reach the Earth,” he explains.

“This is a more dangerous time for astronauts as the increase in potent cosmic rays can easily shatter a strand of human DNA. Also, during years of lower sunspot number, the sun’s extreme ultraviolet radiation (EUV) drops and the Earth’s upper atmosphere cools and contracts.

“With sharply lower aerodynamic drag, satellites have less trouble staying in orbit — a good thing. On the other hand, space junk tends to accumulate, making the space around Earth a more dangerous place for astronauts.”

Darren

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Re: Prepare for new Ice Age now says top paleoclimatologist
« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2016, 10:47:30 AM »

Don't forget 500 years ago the greatest minds in the world said the earth was flat. If you disagreed you disappeared...
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Canuck In Denver

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Re: Prepare for new Ice Age now says top paleoclimatologist
« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2016, 11:20:32 PM »

It's going to happen sooner or later. Whether it will happen next week, next year, in 20 years or a hundred or thousands I don't know. I tend to think it's coming sooner rather than later, but that's me. And yeah, I prepare for it as best I can just as I prepare for all sorts of things I don't think are likely. If I can prepare for it I do my best to prepare for it.
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Darren

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Re: Prepare for new Ice Age now says top paleoclimatologist
« Reply #7 on: July 04, 2016, 04:54:22 PM »

Being Canadian I pretty much live it 6 months of the year ;D If it does start we will become "illegals" and move toward AZ or TX. If we are illegal does that mean we qualify for Spanish lessons??
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Canuck In Denver

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Re: Prepare for new Ice Age now says top paleoclimatologist
« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2016, 09:32:50 PM »

Yeah, we have about 6 months of winter here, followed be 6 months of construction :)

I read parts of two articles today, I didn't grab the links though. One said the north should prepare for no winters and the other said we were slipping into some sort of cooling... maybe a little ice age or a minimum like the Mauder Minimum. Basically they can't figure it out or agree.

So I'll stick with we're in an interglacial period and sooner or later we'll see another ice age. Until things will be normal or weird depending on how mother nature is feeling that year.
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